# Two gaps inside one number

In the GGS-II table used by BiB, women in Moldova report **2.68 ideal children**, **2.40 intended children**, and **1.60 already born** on average. The comparison separates desire, plan and biography. It does not treat gaps as judgements or present them as causes.

![Ledger with three measures: ideal, intended, actual](./assets/ledger-key.svg)

## The short answer

For Moldova, ideal minus intended is **0.28**, while intended minus actual is **0.80**. For Finland, the same distances are **0.36** and **0.72**. The distance to actual is wider in both rows.

## What the columns measure

- Ideal: the personal number under the best conditions of life.
- Intended: the plan that takes the respondent’s situation into account.
- Actual: the total number of biological children already reported.

The arrows are a reading order, not a causal path for the same person.

## The comparable table

| Country | Ideal | Intended | Actual | Ideal − intended | Intended − actual |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Moldova | 2.68 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 0.28 | 0.80 |
| Finland | 2.18 | 1.82 | 1.10 | 0.36 | 0.72 |

Population: women aged 18-49 with non-missing information for all three measures. The source is BiB Working Paper 2/2025, Table 1, with weighted means and country-specific field periods.

## Separate context

NBER Working Paper 35651 and CEPR DP21864 report a fall in the average ideal number of children from 2.42 to 2.31 across 22 advanced economies between 2012 and 2022, and a fall in the share intending a child within three years from 28% to 21% across five European countries between GGS rounds. The authors describe the analysis as an accounting exercise, not causal proof.

In a separate 14-country YouGov survey, UNFPA reports 20% who believed they would be unable to have the number of children they desired and 39% who said financial limitations had affected or would affect their desired family size. These percentages are not the same population as the GGS-II table.

There is no filled-in Romanian value here. The UNECE page lists Romania among countries planning a first GGS-II wave in 2025-2026. Moldova is not a proxy for Romania.

## Sources

- [BiB Working Paper 2/2025, official PDF](https://www.bib.bund.de/Publikation/2025/pdf/Intended-ideal-and-actual-fertility-in-11-European-countries-Evidence-on-fertility-gaps-in-different-age-groups-from-the-Generations-and-Gender-Survey.pdf)
- [NBER Working Paper 35651](https://www.nber.org/papers/w35651)
- [CEPR DP21864](https://cepr.org/publications/dp21864)
- [UNFPA State of World Population 2025](https://www.unfpa.org/swp2025)
- [UNECE Generations and Gender](https://unece.org/population/generations-and-gender)