@font-face{font-family:"Fraunces";font-style:normal;font-weight:300 800;font-display:swap;src:url("fonts/fraunces-normal-latin.woff2") format("woff2");unicode-range:U+0000-00FF,U+0131,U+0152-0153,U+02BB-02BC,U+02C6,U+02DA,U+02DC,U+2000-206F,U+2074,U+20AC,U+2122,U+2191,U+2193,U+2212,U+2215,U+FEFF,U+FFFD}
@font-face{font-family:"Fraunces";font-style:normal;font-weight:300 800;font-display:swap;src:url("fonts/fraunces-normal-latin-ext.woff2") format("woff2");unicode-range:U+0100-02AF,U+0304,U+0308,U+0329,U+1E00-1E9F,U+1EF2-1EFF,U+2020,U+20A0-20AB,U+20AD-20C0,U+2113,U+2C60-2C7F,U+A720-A7FF}
@font-face{font-family:"Fraunces";font-style:italic;font-weight:300 800;font-display:swap;src:url("fonts/fraunces-italic-az.woff2") format("woff2");unicode-range:U+0041-005A,U+0061-007A,U+00C2,U+00CE,U+00E2,U+00EE}
@font-face{font-family:"Fraunces";font-style:italic;font-weight:300 800;font-display:swap;src:url("fonts/fraunces-italic-ro.woff2") format("woff2");unicode-range:U+0102-0103,U+0218-021B}
@font-face{font-family:"IBM Plex Sans";font-style:normal;font-weight:300 700;font-display:swap;src:url("fonts/IBMPlexSans-latin.woff2") format("woff2");unicode-range:U+0000-00FF,U+0131,U+0152-0153,U+02BB-02BC,U+02C6,U+02DA,U+02DC,U+2000-206F,U+2074,U+20AC,U+2122,U+2191,U+2193,U+2212,U+2215,U+FEFF,U+FFFD}
@font-face{font-family:"IBM Plex Sans";font-style:normal;font-weight:300 700;font-display:swap;src:url("fonts/IBMPlexSans-latin-ext.woff2") format("woff2");unicode-range:U+0100-02AF,U+0304,U+0308,U+0329,U+1E00-1E9F,U+1EF2-1EFF,U+2020,U+20A0-20AB,U+20AD-20C0,U+2113,U+2C60-2C7F,U+A720-A7FF}

/* identity: a ledger. paper and ink by day, a green-black counting house by night.
   credit = green, debit = red ink, the pooled estimate = amber pencil */
:root{
  color-scheme:dark;
  --bg:#0d1411;--bg-2:#131c17;--surface:#16211b;--surface-2:#1e2b24;
  --ink:#f1ecdc;--ink-2:#d3ceb9;--muted:#aab4a4;--line:#2c3b33;--rule:#26332c;
  --accent:#ffc857;--accent-ink:#1b1406;
  --credit:#7fd6a2;--debit:#ff8f7e;--blue:#8fb4ff;--grey:#8c978f;
  --card:rgba(13,20,17,.92);
  --serif:"Fraunces","Iowan Old Style",Georgia,serif;--sans:"IBM Plex Sans",system-ui,-apple-system,"Segoe UI",sans-serif;
  --topbar:52px;--col:minmax(0,520px);
}
:root[data-theme="light"]{
  color-scheme:light;
  --bg:#f6f1e3;--bg-2:#eee8d6;--surface:#fbf8ee;--surface-2:#ece5d2;
  --ink:#1b1a15;--ink-2:#34322a;--muted:#514f42;--line:#c9c2a9;--rule:#d7d0b8;
  --accent:#6a4300;--accent-ink:#fff8ea;
  --credit:#0d5a35;--debit:#9c2415;--blue:#1f3f9c;--grey:#5a5f55;
  --card:rgba(251,248,238,.95);
}
@media (prefers-color-scheme:light){:root:not([data-theme="dark"]){
  color-scheme:light;
  --bg:#f6f1e3;--bg-2:#eee8d6;--surface:#fbf8ee;--surface-2:#ece5d2;
  --ink:#1b1a15;--ink-2:#34322a;--muted:#514f42;--line:#c9c2a9;--rule:#d7d0b8;
  --accent:#6a4300;--accent-ink:#fff8ea;
  --credit:#0d5a35;--debit:#9c2415;--blue:#1f3f9c;--grey:#5a5f55;
  --card:rgba(251,248,238,.95);
}}
*{box-sizing:border-box}
[hidden]{display:none!important}
svg[hidden]{display:none}
html{-webkit-text-size-adjust:100%;scroll-behavior:smooth;scroll-padding-top:calc(var(--topbar) + 12px)}
@media (prefers-reduced-motion:reduce){html{scroll-behavior:auto}}
body{margin:0;background:var(--bg);color:var(--ink);font-family:var(--sans);font-size:17px;line-height:1.55;-webkit-font-smoothing:antialiased;overflow-x:clip}
a{color:inherit;text-decoration-color:var(--accent);text-underline-offset:.18em;text-decoration-thickness:1.5px}
a:hover{color:var(--accent)}
:focus-visible{outline:2.5px solid var(--accent);outline-offset:3px;border-radius:4px}
.skip-link{position:absolute;left:12px;top:-60px;z-index:100;background:var(--accent);color:var(--accent-ink);padding:10px 14px;border-radius:8px;font-weight:600}
.skip-link:focus{top:10px}
.num{font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums lining-nums;white-space:nowrap}
.sr-only{position:absolute;width:1px;height:1px;overflow:hidden;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);white-space:nowrap}
.q{font-family:var(--serif);font-style:italic}

/* top bar */
.topbar{position:fixed;inset:0 0 auto 0;height:var(--topbar);z-index:40;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:6px;padding:0 max(14px,env(safe-area-inset-left)) 0 max(14px,env(safe-area-inset-right));background:color-mix(in srgb,var(--bg) 90%,transparent);-webkit-backdrop-filter:blur(10px);backdrop-filter:blur(10px);font-size:14px;border-bottom:1px solid transparent}
.topbar.solid{border-bottom-color:var(--line)}
.brand{display:flex;align-items:center;gap:9px;font-weight:600;text-decoration:none;white-space:nowrap}
.brand-mark{width:18px;height:18px;flex:none;border:2px solid var(--ink);border-radius:3px;position:relative;background:linear-gradient(var(--ink),var(--ink)) 50% 0/2px 100% no-repeat}
.brand-mark::after{content:"";position:absolute;left:2px;right:2px;top:5px;height:2px;background:var(--accent);box-shadow:0 5px 0 var(--accent)}
.topnav{display:none;gap:2px;margin-left:12px}
.topnav a{padding:6px 9px;border-radius:999px;text-decoration:none;color:var(--ink-2)}
.topnav a:hover,.topnav a[aria-current="true"]{color:var(--ink);background:var(--surface-2)}
@media (min-width:1100px){.topnav{display:flex}}
.spacer{flex:1}
.chip{padding:5px 10px;border-radius:999px;text-decoration:none;font-weight:600;font-size:13px;border:1px solid var(--line);color:var(--ink-2)}
.chip[aria-current="page"]{background:var(--ink);color:var(--bg);border-color:var(--ink)}
.icon-btn{width:34px;height:34px;display:grid;place-items:center;border-radius:50%;border:1px solid var(--line);background:transparent;color:var(--ink);cursor:pointer}
.icon-btn:hover{background:var(--surface-2)}
.progress{position:fixed;inset:0 0 auto 0;height:2px;z-index:45;pointer-events:none}
.progress span{display:block;height:100%;background:var(--accent);transform-origin:0 50%;transform:scaleX(0)}

/* reading rail */
.rail{position:fixed;right:8px;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);z-index:30;display:none;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}
@media (min-width:1280px){.rail{display:flex}}
.rail a{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;gap:8px;padding:5px 4px;text-decoration:none;font-size:12.5px;color:var(--ink-2)}
.rail .dot{width:8px;height:8px;border-radius:50%;border:1.5px solid var(--muted);flex:none}
.rail a[aria-current="true"] .dot{background:var(--accent);border-color:var(--accent);box-shadow:0 0 0 4px color-mix(in srgb,var(--accent) 25%,transparent)}
.rail .rail-label{opacity:0;transform:translateX(6px);transition:opacity .2s,transform .2s;background:var(--surface);padding:2px 8px;border-radius:6px;border:1px solid var(--line)}
.rail a:hover .rail-label,.rail a:focus-visible .rail-label{opacity:1;transform:none}

/* story: text column + sticky plate */
.story{position:relative;display:grid;grid-template-columns:var(--col) minmax(0,1fr);gap:0 clamp(12px,3vw,48px);padding:0 clamp(16px,4vw,56px);max-width:1500px;margin:0 auto}
.stage{grid-column:2;grid-row:1;position:sticky;top:0;height:100vh;height:100svh;align-self:start;z-index:2;display:flex;flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;padding:calc(var(--topbar) + 8px) 0 16px}
.col{grid-column:1;grid-row:1;position:relative;z-index:3;min-width:0}
.plate{position:relative;width:100%;background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:14px;padding:10px 10px 6px;box-shadow:0 1px 0 var(--rule)}
.plate svg{display:block;width:100%;height:auto;max-height:calc(100svh - var(--topbar) - 150px)}
.pool-labels{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;align-items:center;gap:4px 18px;margin:0 4px 2px}
.pool-label{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:7px;max-width:100%;font:700 14px/1.4 var(--sans);color:var(--accent)}
.pool-label::before{content:"";flex:0 0 22px;border-top:2.5px solid currentColor}
.pool-label span{min-width:0;overflow-wrap:anywhere}
.pool-label.alt{color:var(--ink-2)}
.pool-label.alt::before{border-top-style:dashed;border-top-color:var(--grey)}
.plate-cap{margin:8px 4px 4px;font-size:14px;line-height:1.4;color:var(--ink-2);min-height:3.9em}
.plate-cap strong{color:var(--ink)}
.readout{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:6px 20px;margin:6px 4px 2px;font-size:13.5px;color:var(--muted)}
.readout b{font:600 22px/1 var(--serif);color:var(--ink);margin-right:4px;font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
.readout .est b{color:var(--accent)}

/* funnel svg */
.ax line,.ax path{stroke:var(--rule);stroke-width:1;fill:none}
.ax text{fill:var(--muted);font:12px var(--sans)}
svg.compact .ax text{font-size:13.5px}
svg.compact .axl{font-size:13px}
svg.compact .plab{font-size:15px}
svg.compact .tag text{font-size:13px}
.ax .zero{stroke:var(--ink-2);stroke-width:1.5;stroke-dasharray:3 4}
.axl{fill:var(--ink-2);font:600 12.5px var(--sans)}
.cone{fill:color-mix(in srgb,var(--accent) 7%,transparent);stroke:var(--accent);stroke-width:1;stroke-dasharray:2 4;opacity:.0;transition:opacity .5s}
.pool{stroke:var(--accent);stroke-width:2.5;opacity:0;transition:opacity .4s}
.pool.alt{stroke:var(--grey);stroke-dasharray:6 5}
.plab{fill:var(--accent);font:700 14px var(--sans);opacity:0;transition:opacity .4s}
.plab.alt{fill:var(--ink-2)}
.pt{fill:var(--ink-2);stroke:var(--ink-2);stroke-width:1.4;fill-opacity:.55;transition:fill-opacity .4s,stroke-opacity .4s,opacity .4s,r .4s;cursor:pointer}
.pt.hollow{fill-opacity:0}
.pt.dim{opacity:.13}
.pt.off{opacity:.05;pointer-events:none}
.pt.on{stroke-width:2.2;fill-opacity:.85}
.pt.c-none{fill:var(--credit);stroke:var(--credit)}
.pt.c-some{fill:var(--accent);stroke:var(--accent)}
.pt.c-explicit{fill:var(--debit);stroke:var(--debit)}
.pt.c-uncoded{fill:var(--grey);stroke:var(--grey)}
.pt.hollow.c-none,.pt.hollow.c-some,.pt.hollow.c-explicit,.pt.hollow.c-uncoded{fill-opacity:0}
.pt:focus-visible{outline:none;stroke:var(--ink);stroke-width:3}
.tag text{fill:var(--ink);font:600 12px var(--sans);paint-order:stroke;stroke:var(--surface);stroke-width:4px}
.tag line{stroke:var(--ink-2);stroke-width:1}
.sim .pt{cursor:default}
.tip{position:absolute;left:0;top:0;pointer-events:none;z-index:4;max-width:250px;background:var(--bg);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:10px;padding:7px 10px;font-size:13px;line-height:1.35;box-shadow:0 10px 30px rgba(0,0,0,.3);opacity:0;transition:opacity .12s}
.tip.on{opacity:1}
.tip b{font:italic 600 15px var(--serif);display:block}
.tip span{color:var(--muted)}
.key{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:4px 14px;margin:4px 4px 2px;font-size:12.5px;color:var(--ink-2)}
.key .o{display:none}
.key[data-mode=obs] .o{display:inline}
.key i{display:inline-block;width:11px;height:11px;border-radius:50%;border:1.6px solid var(--ink-2);margin-right:5px;vertical-align:-1px}
.key i.f{background:var(--ink-2);opacity:.65}
.key i.g{border-color:var(--credit);background:var(--credit)}
.key i.y{border-color:var(--accent);background:var(--accent)}
.key i.r{border-color:var(--debit);background:var(--debit)}
.key i.p{border-top:2.5px solid var(--accent);border-radius:0;height:0;width:16px;border-left:0;border-right:0;border-bottom:0;vertical-align:3px}

/* cards of text */
.step{min-height:100vh;min-height:100svh;display:flex;align-items:center;padding:calc(var(--topbar) + 24px) 0 36px}
.step.hero{padding-top:calc(var(--topbar) + 28px)}
.step.tall{align-items:flex-start}
.step.short{min-height:70svh}
.card{width:100%}
.kicker{font-size:12.5px;letter-spacing:.09em;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--accent);font-weight:650;margin:0 0 12px}
h1{font-family:var(--serif);font-weight:540;font-size:clamp(34px,4.2vw,56px);line-height:1.04;letter-spacing:-.025em;margin:0 0 18px;text-wrap:balance}
h2{font-family:var(--serif);font-weight:560;font-size:clamp(25px,2.6vw,33px);line-height:1.12;letter-spacing:-.014em;margin:0 0 12px;text-wrap:balance}
h3{font:650 17px var(--sans);margin:22px 0 6px}
.anchor{margin-left:8px;font:400 .7em var(--sans);color:var(--muted);text-decoration:none;opacity:0}
h2:hover .anchor,.anchor:focus-visible{opacity:1}
.deck{font-size:clamp(17px,1.4vw,19.5px);line-height:1.5;color:var(--ink-2);margin:0 0 18px}
.card strong,.prose strong{color:var(--ink);font-weight:650}
.card p,.prose p,.prose li{color:var(--ink-2)}
.card p{margin:0 0 12px}
.small,.card p.small{font-size:14px;color:var(--muted)}
.big-n{font:560 clamp(44px,6vw,72px)/1 var(--serif);letter-spacing:-.03em;color:var(--accent);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
.btns{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:10px;align-items:center;margin-top:6px}
.btn{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:8px;padding:10px 17px;border-radius:999px;border:1px solid var(--line);background:var(--surface);color:var(--ink);font:600 15px var(--sans);text-decoration:none;cursor:pointer}
.btn:hover{background:var(--surface-2);color:var(--ink)}
.btn.primary{background:var(--accent);color:var(--accent-ink);border-color:var(--accent)}
.btn.primary:hover{filter:brightness(1.07);color:var(--accent-ink)}
.btn.small{padding:6px 12px;font-size:13.5px}

/* evidence ladder, grades */
.grade{display:inline-block;font:700 11.5px/1 var(--sans);letter-spacing:.04em;text-transform:uppercase;padding:4px 8px;border-radius:5px;border:1.5px solid currentColor;white-space:nowrap}
.g-rep{color:var(--credit)}.g-mixed{color:var(--accent)}.g-fail{color:var(--debit)}.g-untested{color:var(--muted)}.g-other{color:var(--blue)}
.cards{list-style:none;margin:14px 0;padding:0;display:grid;gap:10px}
.cards li{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:12px;padding:12px 14px}
.cards .hd{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;justify-content:space-between;gap:6px 12px;align-items:baseline;margin-bottom:4px}
.cards .hd strong{font:560 18px/1.2 var(--serif);color:var(--ink)}
.cards p{margin:4px 0;font-size:15px}
.cards .meta{font-size:13px;color:var(--muted)}
.cards .nums{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:4px 16px;font-size:13.5px;color:var(--ink-2);margin-top:6px}
.cards .nums b{font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;color:var(--ink)}
.cards .src a{font-size:13px;color:var(--muted)}
.filters{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:6px;margin:10px 0 4px}
.filters button,.seg button{font:600 13.5px var(--sans);padding:6px 11px;border-radius:999px;border:1px solid var(--line);background:var(--surface);color:var(--ink);cursor:pointer}
.filters button[aria-pressed="true"],.seg button[aria-pressed="true"]{background:var(--ink);color:var(--bg);border-color:var(--ink)}
.seg{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:6px}

/* the reader's own meta-analysis */
.lab{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:14px;padding:14px 16px;margin:14px 0}
.lab fieldset{border:0;margin:0 0 12px;padding:0}
.lab legend{font:650 14px var(--sans);padding:0;margin-bottom:6px;color:var(--ink)}
.lab label{font-size:14px;color:var(--ink-2)}
.lab input[type=range]{width:100%;accent-color:var(--accent)}
.lab .out{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:6px 22px;align-items:baseline;margin-top:6px}
.lab .out b{font:560 34px/1 var(--serif);color:var(--accent);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
.lab .out span{color:var(--muted);font-size:14px}
.share{margin-top:12px}
.share-row{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px;align-items:center}
.share-label{font-size:13.5px;color:var(--muted);margin-right:4px}
.sbtn{width:40px;height:40px;display:grid;place-items:center;border-radius:50%;border:1px solid var(--line);background:transparent;color:var(--ink);cursor:pointer;text-decoration:none}
.sbtn:hover{background:var(--surface-2);color:var(--accent)}
@media (pointer:coarse){.sbtn{width:44px;height:44px}}
.share-msg{font-size:13px;color:var(--muted);min-height:1.2em;margin:4px 0 0}
.clear{all:unset;cursor:pointer;font:600 13.5px var(--sans);color:var(--ink-2);padding:6px 4px;text-decoration:underline;text-decoration-color:var(--accent)}

/* long-form below the story */
.after{max-width:1500px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 clamp(16px,4vw,56px)}
.prose{max-width:760px;margin:0 auto;padding:40px 0 20px}
.prose.wide{max-width:980px}
.prose h2{margin:56px 0 12px;scroll-margin-top:calc(var(--topbar) + 16px)}
.prose h2:first-child{margin-top:12px}
.prose ul{padding-left:1.2em}
.prose li{margin:6px 0}
.fig{margin:22px 0}
.fig figcaption{font-size:14px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:8px}
.fig svg{display:block;width:100%;height:auto}
.panel{background:var(--surface);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:14px;padding:12px 12px 8px}
.sim-ctl{display:grid;gap:10px 18px;grid-template-columns:repeat(auto-fit,minmax(200px,1fr));margin:10px 0}
.sim-ctl label{display:block;font:600 13.5px var(--sans);color:var(--ink)}
.sim-ctl output{font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;color:var(--accent)}
.sim-ctl input{width:100%;accent-color:var(--accent)}
.sim-out{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:6px 24px;font-size:14px;color:var(--ink-2);margin:6px 2px}
.sim-out b{font:560 26px/1 var(--serif);color:var(--ink);font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums}
.sim-out .pubd b{color:var(--accent)}
.tbl{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:14.5px}
.tbl th,.tbl td{padding:7px 8px;border-bottom:1px solid var(--rule);text-align:left;vertical-align:top}
.tbl th{font:650 12.5px var(--sans);letter-spacing:.04em;text-transform:uppercase;color:var(--muted)}
.tbl td.n{font-variant-numeric:tabular-nums;white-space:nowrap}
details{margin:10px 0}
summary{cursor:pointer;font-weight:600;color:var(--ink)}
.sources{padding-left:1.2em;font-size:14.5px}
.sources li{margin:8px 0}
.callout{border-left:3px solid var(--accent);padding:4px 0 4px 14px;margin:18px 0}
.callout p{margin:6px 0}

.site-footer{max-width:760px;margin:30px auto 0;padding:24px 0 80px;border-top:1px solid var(--line);display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px 22px;font-size:14px;color:var(--muted)}
.site-footer a{text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid var(--accent)}
.back-top{position:fixed;right:max(14px,env(safe-area-inset-right));bottom:max(16px,env(safe-area-inset-bottom));z-index:35;display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;gap:6px;width:46px;height:46px;padding:0;border-radius:50%;border:1px solid var(--line);background:var(--surface);color:var(--ink);font:600 13.5px var(--sans);cursor:pointer;box-shadow:0 6px 20px rgba(0,0,0,.25)}
.back-top:hover{background:var(--surface-2)}
.back-top span{position:absolute;width:1px;height:1px;overflow:hidden;clip:rect(0 0 0 0)}

/* phone and narrow laptop: the plate keeps the top of the screen, text passes below it */
@media (max-width:959px){
  .story{display:block;padding:0 16px}
  .stage{position:sticky;top:var(--topbar);height:auto;padding:8px 0 6px;background:var(--bg);z-index:5;display:block}
  .plate{padding:6px 6px 4px}
  .plate svg{max-height:34svh}
  .plate-cap{font-size:13px;min-height:0;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-line-clamp:2;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;overflow:hidden}
  .readout{margin-top:2px}
  .readout b{font-size:19px}
  .readout [data-ro-ci]{display:none}
  .key{display:none}
  .step{min-height:60svh;padding:22px 0 26px;align-items:flex-start}
  .step.hero{min-height:0;padding-top:16px}
  .step.tall{min-height:0}
}
.plate .still{display:none;width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:8px}
.no-js .plate .still{display:block}
.no-js #funnel{display:none}
.no-js .stage{position:static;height:auto}
@media (prefers-reduced-motion:reduce){.pt,.pool,.plab,.cone{transition:none}}

.tbl-note{font-size:.85rem;color:var(--muted);margin:.6rem 0}

.fig svg.forest-narrow{display:none}
.forest-table{margin-top:10px;font-size:.92rem}
.forest-table summary{cursor:pointer}
.forest-table .tbl tr.orig th{font-weight:650}
@media (max-width:700px){.fig svg.forest-wide{display:none}.fig svg.forest-narrow{display:block;width:100%;height:auto}}
@media (max-width:959px){html{scroll-padding-top:calc(var(--topbar) + var(--stage-h, 0px) + 12px)}.prose h2{scroll-margin-top:12px}}