# A reference week is not a full year

Primary source: Statistics Canada, 25 March and 26 August 2026.

Canada's standard NEET measure is based on the Labour Force Survey and a reference week. NEETEST covers a full calendar year in administrative records and treats caregiving differently. Statistics Canada defines it as a narrower alternative, but the gap between the published percentages is not a count of people removed by one filter.

## Two windows, two rates

- **NEET, 7 days:** 12.5% in 2022, from the Labour Force Survey.
- **NEETEST, 365 days:** 7.6% in 2022, from tax, work, and education records.

Population: people aged 20 to 29 living in the Canadian provinces. The annual NEET rate combines snapshot estimates. NEETEST checks detected activity throughout a full calendar year. The gap between the rates is not a record-level before-and-after filter count.

**Next:** how is the annual measure related to circumstances five years later?

## One subject, two statistical questions

NEET uses a reference week from the Labour Force Survey. Annual rates combine several snapshot estimates rather than following the same people for a full year. Caregiving is generally included, but people on parental leave are classified as employed. In 2022, the rate was 12.5% for men and 12.4% for women.

NEETEST checks one full calendar year. It uses T1 and T4 tax files, the Longitudinal Worker File, Records of Employment, and the Postsecondary Student Information System. The classification requires no detected work, enrolment, or caregiving during the year. In 2022, the rate was 6.7% for men and 8.5% for women.

## The gap between the rates has no fixed width

| Year | NEET | NEETEST | Gap, points |
| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2017 | 13.8% | 7.8% | 6.0 |
| 2018 | 13.1% | 7.6% | 5.5 |
| 2019 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 5.6 |
| 2020 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 11.2 |
| 2021 | 14.6% | 8.0% | 6.6 |
| 2022 | 12.5% | 7.6% | 4.9 |

The gap subtracts one rate from another. It is not a count of people removed by a filter.

In Saskatchewan, the 2022 NEETEST estimate was 13.2% and the NEET estimate was 12.6%. The authors describe them as similar. The table reports no uncertainty for these values, and the rates come from different systems. The 0.6-point reversal does not establish whether one group sits inside the other. It shows why the two columns should not be read as a flow of people.

## Five years later, differences appear in education and work

A second Statistics Canada study classified people aged 20 to 29 as NEETEST or not in 2017, then measured outcomes in 2022. Adjusted associations in the national sample were:

| 2022 outcome | Men | Women | Unit |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Postsecondary enrolment | −5 | −7 | percentage points |
| Employment | −48 | −43 | percentage points |
| Self-employment | −4 | −3 | percentage points |
| Total earnings | −25,400 | −19,600 | constant 2025 CAD, people classified as employed only |

All coefficients above have p < 0.001 in table 5.

**Association, not cause.** The authors direct readers to treat the results as descriptive or correlative, not causal or even quasi-causal. The models cannot observe every circumstance that may influence both the 2017 classification and the 2022 situation.

## Limits that change interpretation

1. The follow-up does not compare snapshot NEET with NEETEST longitudinally.
2. People living on reserve are excluded. Tax-file linkage was 66.4% for people living on reserve and 87.2% for people living off reserve.
3. The HTML article does not publish the exact final number of observations.
4. Earnings differences cover only people classified as employed and use Canadian dollars at constant 2025 prices.
5. Administrative signals detect caregiving imperfectly.
6. The findings describe Canada and do not estimate circumstances among young people in Romania.

## Sources

1. Statistics Canada, [The NEETEST youth: Not in employment, education or training, excluding short transitions](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2026003/article/00001-eng.htm), 25 March 2026.
2. Statistics Canada, [Experiencing NEETEST: Determinants and long-term educational and labour market implications](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2026008/article/00003-eng.htm), 26 August 2026.

Research, writing, and design: Marius Comper. Published 27 August 2026.