Sources and notes
What is measured and what is drawn. The depths, the ages, the dates with their margins and the colours are the stone’s own data (689 oxygen measurements; 20 uranium–thorium dates, plus the top, taken as still growing; every “give or take” is a 95% range). The outline, the width, the curved layers, the cave, the drops and the thin layers at the top are drawn. Colours between two measurements are blended, and the colour scale is stretched to the stone’s own spread (the 95th percentile of its distance from its average), so that its swings are easy to see. Ages are years before 1950, which at these scales is “years ago” to within a century. No one measured how often a drop falls in this cave, so the page gives no rate of dripping. The study’s title says 116,000 years; the stone was sampled slightly below its oldest date (687 millimetres, 114,905 ± 5,100 years), and the ages of those last centimetres are estimated from the dates above, so the page says 115,000. The database gives the first date as 2,245 years; the original study’s table gives about 2,350, and the page uses the database.
Your lifetime. The stone stopped growing when it was taken from the cave, so the sentence under your birth year says what a stone like this would have added at its recent rate, 8.3 millimetres per thousand years (between 7.9 and 8.8 if the dates are allowed their full 95% margin). Other stretches of this stone grew between 2.4 and 14 millimetres per thousand years.
The colours and the rhythm. Lighter or heavier oxygen is the quantity measured (δ18O). The study’s summary links it to the source and amount of rain at this site; other caves differ. The shift between 14,000 and 12,000 years ago is 2.2 parts per thousand, comparing 1,000-year means. The 24,000-year repeat is the strongest peak of the stone’s own series; random series with the same slow drift produce a peak that strong about once in 70 times (p = 0.014).
- Kaushal, N. et al. (2024). “SISALv3: a global speleothem stable isotope and trace element database.” Earth System Science Data 16, 1933–1963. Data: Oxford Research Archive, version 3, licence CC BY 4.0. Every depth, age, date, oxygen value and site on the page, and the counts of caves and stones.
- Cruz, F. W. et al. (2005). “Insolation-driven changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 116,000 years in subtropical Brazil.” Nature 434, 63–66. The stalagmite BT-2 and its record. The study’s summary, as reproduced in NOAA’s data file, says the oxygen varies with the source and amount of rain, driven mainly by summer sunlight; 20 U/Th ages.
- Walker, M. et al. (2009). “Formal definition and dating of the GSSP (Global Stratotype Section and Point) for the base of the Holocene using the Greenland NGRIP ice core, and selected auxiliary records.” Journal of Quaternary Science 24, 3–17. The start of the warm period, about 11,700 years ago.
- Clark, P. U. et al. (2009). “The Last Glacial Maximum.” Science 325, 710–714. Ice sheets at their biggest, about 26,000 to 19,000 years ago.
- Credit card thickness 0.76 mm: ISO/IEC 7810, card format ID-1. Closani stalagmite C09-2: Warken, S. F. et al. (2018), “Reconstruction of late Holocene autumn/winter precipitation variability in SW Romania from a high-resolution speleothem trace element record.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 499, 122–133 (the stone and its ages come from the database). Relief of the world map: NOAA, ETOPO 2022 Global Relief Model.