# The education funnel: how many really finish school?

> Out of 100 children who start year 1, about 74 earn the baccalaureate in
> this illustrative comparison. At the same time, 17 in 100 young people aged 18–24
> leave education early.

Text version of the bilingual microsite at
<https://mariuscomper.uk/palnia-educatiei/en/>.
[Versiunea în română.](https://mariuscomper.uk/palnia-educatiei/index.md)

## An illustrative comparison, not a longitudinal cohort

Cross-sectional rates from different years and populations, combined
transparently. Each stage keeps its own denominator.

| Stage | Figures lit of 100 | Source rate | Denominator |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 100 | 100% (base) | Base of 100, by definition |
| Year 8 | 96 | 95.8% | Illustrative reference: transition to upper secondary, 2023/2024 (S1) |
| National assessment, average of at least 5 | 75 | 74.5% | 152,903 entrants (2024) (S1) |
| Entry to year 9 / vocational | 96 | 95.8% | Pupils enrolled in year 8 (S1) |
| Year 12 / graduation | 93 | Illustration | 96 × (1 − 0.8%)⁴, annual lyceum dropout 2022/2023 (S1) |
| Baccalaureate passed | 74 | 79.7% | High-school graduates, 2024 (S1) |

## Early leaving at 18–24 (2024, S3)

Rural 26.3% · Towns and suburbs 15.3% · Overall 16.8% · EU average 9.4% ·
Cities 3.3%. In 2023 the national report recorded 16.6% (S1).

Read beside the chart: a cross-sectional indicator by Eurostat degree of
urbanisation, not a cohort. High exam performance is not the same as
access, attendance, graduation, or quality.

## Baccalaureate 2024, track comparison (S2)

A track comparison, not causal evidence. Current promotion, candidates
present, first session after appeals: theoretical 91.8% (65,163 of 70,966)
· vocational 80.1% (10,273 of 12,830) · technological 65.7% (21,630 of
32,902) · overall 83.2% (97,066 of 116,698).

Read beside the chart: the denominator is candidates present, not all
pupils. High exam performance is not the same as access, attendance,
graduation, or quality.

## Sources

S1: [National report on pre-university education 2023–2024](https://www.edu.ro/sites/default/files/_fi%C8%99iere/Minister/2024/div/Rapoarte_sistem/Raport_Stare_invatamant_preuniv-2023-2024.pdf).
S2: [2024 baccalaureate press kit, final results](https://www.edu.ro/sites/default/files/_fi%C8%99iere/Minister/2024/div/12_07_2024_Dosar_presa_bacalaureat_2024_rezultate_finale_DC.pdf).
S3: Education and Training Monitor 2025, Romania report
(<https://op.europa.eu/webpub/eac/education-and-training-monitor/en/country-reports/romania.html>).