Pe datorie · the game
What would you have chosen? Build your own deficit package
Summer 2025. Without new measures, the European Commission forecast a 2026 deficit of 8.4% of GDP. The EU asked for the budget balance, excluding interest and the business cycle, to improve by about 2 points of GDP in 2026. Below are the 14 measures the government adopted, each with what it brings in 2026. Take as many as you like, any of them; you can also cut investment. The target: about 2 points.
One point of GDP is about 20 billion lei. After 2026 the EU asks for about 1 point a year, until the deficit falls below 3%, in 2030.
What did the government choose?
The government chose all 14: 13 in the package that became Law 141/2025, phased in between July 2025 and January 2026, and the local taxes in Law 239/2025. The Ministry of Finance estimated the draft law's effect at 3.35 points of GDP in 2026. Investment was not cut: for 2026 it is programmed at a record, about 8.0% of GDP.
Some were later softened: Emergency Ordinance 9/2026 restored some property-tax exemptions, for people with disabilities and for old buildings.
What happened a year later?
In its second October 2026 EDP notification, Eurostat put the 2025 deficit at 7.8% of GDP, below the Commission's spring 2025 no-measures forecast of 8.6%. The gap does not isolate the measures' effect: revenue, interest and PNRR financing also mattered.
For 2026 the government targets a deficit of 6.0% of GDP. Moody’s expects 5.8%, S&P 6.25%. The EU deadline to get below 3% remains 2030; the government's fiscal strategy aims for below 3% in 2031.
How it is calculated
Each value is the estimated effect on 2026, in points of GDP, against a no-measures scenario. For the first 13 measures: Ministry of Finance estimates, as presented by the Fiscal Council in its July 2025 opinion on the draft law. For the property tax: the estimate in the Fiscal Council's opinion on the 2026 budget.
Investment: the government programmed about 8.0% of GDP for 2026 (Fiscal Council), and 56% of 2025 investment came from EU funds (fiscal strategy). We assume the same share in 2026, so the national part would be about 3.5% of GDP; the cut applies only to it. The calculation is ours and approximate.
“After the effect on the economy”: austerity slows the economy and the state collects somewhat less. We apply the values the Fiscal Council uses, as does the European Commission: multiplier 0.75 × semi-elasticity 0.32, about 24% of the initial effect.
The EU's roughly 2 points refer to the structural primary balance (excluding interest and the business cycle), while the measure estimates are against a no-change scenario. The comparison is indicative.
Measures without a published official estimate (for example, the reform of magistrates' pensions) are not in the game.
Sources
- Fiscal Council, opinion on the draft law on certain fiscal-budgetary measures (July 2025)
- Fiscal Council, opinion on the 2026 budget
- EU Council, press release of 8 July 2025 (revised path for Romania)
- EU Council, recommendation ST 10349/25 (no-measures forecast, the roughly 2-point effort)
- Ministry of Finance, Fiscal-budgetary strategy 2026–2028
- Ministry of Finance, report on the 2026 draft budget (2026 GDP)
- Eurostat, gov_10dd_edpt1 and gov_10a_main
- Eurostat, second EDP notification for 2025, 21 October 2026
- S&P Global Ratings, 15 May 2026
- Moody’s Ratings, 7 August 2026