NUTS 2016 · 305 regions · 5 scenarios

Three hundred and five regionsto 2100

Under SSP2, the pathway that continues current demographic trends, the 15-64 share across Romania's eight regions moves from 63.3-66.7% in 2020 to 46.7-48.9% in 2100. The map shows where regional paths separate.

Scientific Data · Zenodo 18256235 · NUTS 2016 geographyModel result conditional on the selected SSP. Not a forecast. The public dataset provides no uncertainty interval for each mapped value.

The answer we start with

Eight Romanian regions. One direction, different rates.

2020 · 63.3-66.7%

2100 · 46.7-48.9%

The projected fall in the 15-64 share ranges from 14.9 to 18.5 percentage points. The calculation uses the five published age bands and the combined female and male population.

Definition: 15-64 = 15-24 + 25-44 + 45-64
Source: Scientific Data · Zenodo 18256235 · NUTS 2016 geography
Status: Model result conditional on the selected SSP. Not a forecast.
Uncertainty: The public dataset provides no uncertainty interval for each mapped value.

The regional atlas

Change the scenario, year and measure. Geography stays fixed.

Colour encodes a value, not a ranking. Select a region to inspect its age structure and compare it with 2020.

ScenarioSSP2: continuation of current demographic trends. Year 2100 Region being readChoose a region on the map or from the list. The list provides the complete keyboard route.

What do SSP1-SSP5 mean?

The source assigns no probabilities to these pathways. They change assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration.

SSP1: low fertility, sustained gains in life expectancy and relatively open migration.
SSP2: continuation of current demographic trends.
SSP3: persistently low fertility, stalled mortality improvements and restricted migration.
SSP4: high inequality with divergent demographic regimes.
SSP5: higher fertility, rapid mortality decline and relatively high migration.

What colours the map?

<15Under 15 15-64Age 15-64 65+Age 65 and over (<15 + 65+) / 15-64Dependency ratio

The 15-24, 25-44 and 45-64 bands divided by the sum of the five age bands.

SSP2 2100 Age 15-64 % of the region's population Model result conditional on the selected SSP. Not a forecast. The public dataset provides no uncertainty interval for each mapped value.

Loading regional geometry and series…

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more 35-75 · % of the region's population

Choose a region on the map or from the list. The list provides the complete keyboard route.

Model result conditional on the selected SSP. Not a forecast.

Romania under SSP2, without JavaScript

This table preserves the essential result. Values are shares of the population aged 15-64.

Region	2020	2100
Nord-Vest RO11	65.6%	48.9%
Centru RO12	64.0%	46.9%
Nord-Est RO21	63.3%	48.4%
Sud-Est RO22	63.7%	46.8%
Sud - Muntenia RO31	64.0%	46.8%
Bucureşti - Ilfov RO32	66.7%	48.8%
Sud-Vest Oltenia RO41	64.8%	46.7%
Vest RO42	65.3%	46.8%

How to read the map

Four rules keep the projection within its limits

Scenarios are not forecasts

Each state shows model output under a selected SSP. The source gives no probabilities for SSP1-SSP5, and the map does not identify one as most likely. The public dataset provides no uncertainty interval for each mapped value.

Age comes in five broad bands

The data publish under 15, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64 and 65 or over. These support shares and the ratio defined here. The bands do not support measures that require individual ages.

Every state uses the same boundaries

The map uses NUTS 2016 geography for every scenario and year. This keeps comparison stable even where current administrative groupings have since changed.

Colour shows a value, not a verdict

Each measure keeps one fixed scale so years and scenarios remain comparable. No region receives a score and the page offers no policy recommendation.

From source to map

I used rows that combine female and male populations in the final Zenodo dataset. The atlas stores the five age-band populations as whole-person counts and calculates every share directly from those values. Displayed results are rounded once, to one decimal place. Names and outlines come from GISCO.

Data published in 2026 · horizon 2020 to 2100

Data, code and limits

The article documents the model and validation. Zenodo preserves the final dataset, replication material and updated code. GISCO publishes the geography used by the map.