mariuscomper.uk Română

Quarterly GDP · Romania · INS · 2020–2026

Romania's GDP, quarter by quarter, 2020–2026: the first figure INS published and the current one

Romania's National Institute of Statistics (INS) publishes the first GDP figure 45 days after the quarter ends, updates it twice over the next two months, and the series is revised again after that. Follow how each of the 26 quarters changed, from the day of the first estimate to the current series.

0.1 pp

median difference, in percentage points and without sign, between the first estimate and the second provisional version, at about 100 days (25 quarters, without Q2 2026, too recent)

0.3 pp

median difference to the series of 7 September 2026, for 2023–Q1 2026: half the quarters changed less (Q1 2020–Q4 2022: 1.2 pp)

5 of 25

quarters that went, between the first value and the current one, from growth to a fall or the reverse

The figure of release day changes little in the first three months. Later revisions change it more, and in some quarters they turned growth into a fall or the reverse.

Romania's GDP growth over 26 quarters: first figure and current valueOne row per quarter, against the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted. A hollow ring marks the first figure INS published, a filled dot marks the chosen moment, a line joins them. The table below gives all figures. −12−10−8−6−4−20+2+4+6 Q1 2020−2.4Q2 2020−8.2Q3 2020+3.8Q4 2020+4.9Q1 2021+1.3Q2 2021+1.0Q3 2021+0.2Q4 2021−0.1Q1 2022+3.2Q2 2022+0.2Q3 2022+0.4Q4 2022+1.2Q1 2023−0.2Q2 2023+1.0Q3 2023+0.9Q4 2023+0.4Q1 2024−0.2Q2 2024−0.5Q3 2024+0.6Q4 2024+0.9Q1 2025−0.4Q2 2025+0.9Q3 20250.0Q4 2025−1.9Q1 2026−0.1Q2 20260.0 % (GDP growth)

Pick a quarter in the chart.

Current series, 7 September 2026

Forty-five days after the quarter, INS publishes the first figure

Each row is a quarter, from Q1 2020 to Q2 2026. The dot shows how much GDP grew against the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted, according to the first estimate INS published, which it calls the "signal estimate".

The latest row, Q2 2026: 0.0%. GDP was flat against Q1 2026.

By the second provisional version, the figure changes little

INS publishes two provisional versions, about a month apart, the last about 100 days after the quarter. Between the first estimate and the last version, the median difference is 0.1 percentage points, in Q1 2020–Q4 2022 as well as from 2023 on (25 quarters). The largest difference: 0.8 points, in Q2 2023 (+0.9% → +1.7%).

In the current series, the values of the same quarters look different

In the last position, the chart shows the series INS published on 7 September 2026. Against the first figure, the median difference is 0.3 points for the quarters from 2023 to Q1 2026 and 1.2 points for Q1 2020–Q4 2022.

INS releases point to possible sources of revisions: new data (agricultural and annual data, for instance), the seasonal adjustment recalculated every quarter and, in 2024, a major revision of the national accounts. The data do not attribute each difference to a cause.

The largest revisions are from 2020–2022

Q2 2020, the quarter at the start of the pandemic: first figure −12.3%, current −8.2%. Q1 2022: +5.2% → +3.2%.

Six of the 12 quarters in Q1 2020–Q4 2022 were revised by at least one point. Among the 13 quarters since, none were.

Sometimes the sign reverses: a fall instead of growth

Q1 2024: first figure +0.5%, current −0.2%. Q2 2024: +0.1% → −0.5%. In the releases of the time, the values for the two quarters showed no fall; in the current series both are negative.

Two quarterly falls in a row are the usual yardstick for a "technical recession". It is no official dating. It shows how fragile the yardstick is when the falls are a few tenths.

In all, for five of 25 quarters the current value shows a fall where the first showed growth, or the reverse: Q1 2020, Q1 2023, Q4 2023, Q1 2024, Q2 2024.

On annual growth, the differences are of the same order

On the adjusted series, against the same quarter a year earlier, the median difference is 0.3 points for 2023–Q1 2026 and 0.8 for Q1 2020–Q4 2022. On the gross series: 0.2 and 0.8. The chart shows each of the three series.

The revisions of Q2 2026 are only beginning

As of 2 October 2026, Q2 2026 has two published figures: the estimate of 14 August and the first provisional version of 7 September. Both give 0.0% against Q1 2026 (adjusted), −2.0% against Q2 2025 (adjusted) and −0.4% against Q2 2025 (gross series).

The history shows how far earlier quarters changed, not how far this one will. Its row is left out of the statistics.

The size of the revisions, by series and period

Each dot below is one quarter: the distance between the first published value and the current one, in percentage points, without sign. The vertical line marks the median. There are 25 quarters: 12 in Q1 2020–Q4 2022 and 13 from 2023 on.

The differences have no steady direction. For quarterly growth, the current value is lower than the first in 14 quarters, higher in 10 quarters and equal in one quarter. For gross annual growth it is higher in 18 quarters and lower in seven quarters.

Size of the revisions, for three series and two periodsQuarterly 2020–2022: median 1.2, maximum 4.1; Quarterly 2023–2026: median 0.3, maximum 0.8; Annual, adjusted 2020–2022: median 0.8, maximum 2.1; Annual, adjusted 2023–2026: median 0.3, maximum 1.2; Annual, gross 2020–2022: median 0.8, maximum 1.8; Annual, gross 2023–2026: median 0.2, maximum 1.801234QuarterlyQ1 2020–Q4 20221.2Quarterly2023–Q1 20260.3Annual, adjustedQ1 2020–Q4 20220.8Annual, adjusted2023–Q1 20260.3Annual, grossQ1 2020–Q4 20220.8Annual, gross2023–Q1 20260.2distance between the first value and the current one, percentage points
SeriesPeriodQuartersMedian difference at 100 daysMedian to the current seriesMaximumAt least 0.5 pointsSign reversed
QuarterlyQ1 2020–Q4 2022120.21.24.181
Quarterly2023–Q1 2026130.20.30.854
Annual, adjustedQ1 2020–Q4 2022120.30.82.190
Annual, adjusted2023–Q1 2026130.20.31.241
Annual, grossQ1 2020–Q4 2022120.20.81.881
Annual, gross2023–Q1 2026130.20.21.840

Method and limits

The three versions

The signal estimate appears about 45 days after the quarter, the first provisional version about 70 days, the second about 100. The values of each version come from the tables of the INS releases; the table below gives all of them, with the release link. For Q1 2021 no second version was found, so the first one stands. Q4 2019 is missing: its first release appeared only in March 2020, at 70 days.

The current value

It is the value in the series INS published on 7 September 2026. For the seasonally adjusted series it was compared with Eurostat (version of 1 October 2026): the largest difference is 0.05 percentage points, and the display uses Eurostat's rounding. The gross series comes from INS's Excel record.

The difference

It is the absolute difference between the current value and the first published value, both rounded to one decimal as the public reads them. "Sign reversed" means one is positive and the other negative; a 0.0 is not counted.

What it does not show

There are 25 quarters, not a randomly drawn sample, and the two periods are not independent. Recent quarters have had fewer rounds of revision, so their revision histories are less complete. A revision brings new data; it does not prove the first value was wrong, or that the current one is final. Q2 2026 stays out of the statistics. The Q1 2020–Q4 2022 period includes the pandemic and the major revision of 2024; the gap between the two periods does not show that INS became more precise.

What this page does not do

It does not predict how a future quarter will be revised and recommends no financial decision. Past differences do not bound the next one.

Every quarter, every version

Change in real GDP, %, in each published version. The first column of each group is the signal estimate; the last is the current series. The Q2 2026 row has no second version yet.
QuarterReleasesQuarterly · against the previous quarter, seasonally adjustedAnnual, adjusted · against the same quarter a year earlier, seasonally adjustedAnnual, gross · against the same quarter a year earlier, gross series
first estimateprovisional 1provisional 2currentfirst estimateprovisional 1provisional 2currentfirst estimateprovisional 1provisional 2current
Q1 2020S P1 P2+0.3+0.3+0.3−2.4+2.7+2.7+2.7+2.1+2.4+2.4+2.4+2.5
Q2 2020S P1 P2−12.3−12.3−11.9−8.2−10.5−10.5−10.2−8.5−10.5−10.5−10.3−9.9
Q3 2020S P1 P2+5.6+5.6+5.8+3.8−6.0−6.0−5.7−5.4−6.0−6.0−5.7−5.0
Q4 2020S P1 P2+5.3+4.8+4.8+4.9−1.7−1.8−1.8−2.5−1.5−1.4−1.4−1.3
Q1 2021S P1+2.8+2.8–+1.30.00.0–+1.3−0.2−0.2–+0.2
Q2 2021S P1 P2+1.8+1.8+1.9+1.0+13.6+13.6+14.4+11.5+13.0+13.0+13.9+14.8
Q3 2021S P1 P2+0.3+0.4+0.4+0.2+8.0+8.1+8.2+7.7+7.2+7.4+7.4+6.1
Q4 2021S P1 P2−0.5−0.1−0.1−0.1+2.7+3.9+3.9+2.5+2.2+2.4+2.4+2.4
Q1 2022S P1 P2+5.2+5.2+5.1+3.2+6.5+6.5+6.4+4.4+6.5+6.5+6.4+5.8
Q2 2022S P1 P2+2.1+2.1+1.8+0.2+5.3+5.3+5.0+3.6+5.3+5.3+5.1+4.5
Q3 2022S P1 P2+1.3+1.3+1.2+0.4+4.7+4.7+4.6+3.8+4.0+4.0+3.8+3.2
Q4 2022S P1 P2+1.1+1.0+1.0+1.2+5.0+4.9+4.8+5.0+4.6+4.6+4.5+3.8
Q1 2023S P1 P2+0.1+0.1+0.2−0.2+2.8+2.8+2.9+1.6+2.3+2.3+2.4+2.7
Q2 2023S P1 P2+0.9+0.9+1.7+1.0+2.7+2.7+2.6+2.4+1.1+1.1+1.0+1.0
Q3 2023S P1 P2+0.4+0.9+0.9+0.9+2.1+2.9+2.9+2.9+0.2+1.1+1.1+2.0
Q4 2023S P1 P2−0.4−0.5−0.5+0.4+1.0+1.1+1.1+2.2+2.9+3.0+3.0+3.2
Q1 2024S P1 P2+0.5+0.4+0.7−0.2+1.8+1.8+2.2+2.1+0.1+0.1+0.5+0.6
Q2 2024S P1 P2+0.1+0.1+0.3−0.5+0.8+0.8+0.9+0.5+0.8+0.8+0.9+0.9
Q3 2024S P1 P20.0−0.10.0+0.6−0.2−0.3−0.1+0.3+1.1+1.1+1.2+1.7
Q4 2024S P1 P2+0.8+0.8+0.6+0.9+0.7+0.7+0.5+0.8+0.7+0.7+0.5+0.5
Q1 2025S P1 P20.00.00.0−0.4+0.5+0.6+0.6+0.7+0.2+0.3+0.3+0.3
Q2 2025S P1 P2+1.2+1.2+1.2+0.9+2.1+2.1+2.3+2.1+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.4
Q3 2025S P1 P2−0.2−0.2−0.20.0+1.4+1.4+1.5+1.4+1.6+1.6+1.7+1.7
Q4 2025S P1 P2−1.9−1.9−1.8−1.9−1.6−1.5−1.4−1.4+0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Q1 2026S P1 P2−0.20.00.0−0.1−1.5−1.1−1.1−1.1−1.7−1.2−1.2−1.2
Q2 2026S P10.00.0–0.0−2.0−2.0–−2.0−0.4−0.4–−0.4

Download the data (JSON)

Sources

All figures are published by INS and Eurostat. The links go to their pages.

  • INS

    Press releases on quarterly GDP

    For every quarter in 2020–2026: the signal estimate and the two provisional versions, as PDF. The figures of each version come from their tables; each row of the table below links to its three releases.

    Open the source

  • INS

    Quarterly gross domestic product: the full series

    The Excel record of the series as of 7 September 2026 (provisional 1): gross and seasonally adjusted, 1995–Q2 2026. This is where the current value of the gross series comes from; for the adjusted series it was checked against Eurostat.

    Open the source

  • Eurostat

    namq_10_gdp: quarterly GDP, Romania

    Chain-linked volumes, seasonally adjusted, quarterly and annual change, version of 1 October 2026. The figures match the INS series to within 0.05 percentage points; the display uses Eurostat's rounding.

    Open the source

  • INS

    Major revision of the national accounts, 2024

    INS note on the revision of a long series under the European harmonised revision policy. It is one reason older quarters carry a different value today.

    Open the source

  • INS

    INS release for Q4 2025, section "Revizuiri" (revisions)

    An example of a reason INS gives: unadjusted values for Q1–Q3 2025 were revised after data sources were updated (provisional agricultural data and annual data).

    Open the source