Heat and mortality · 42 counties · 2015–2026
Romania's July 2024 heatwave: more than 2,500 deaths above normal in two weeks, against nine reported as hyperthermia
Between 8 and 21 July 2024, the two hottest weeks of summer 2024, with red heat warnings from 13 to 18 July, 11,486 people died in Romania. Had those weeks been ordinary for 2024, about 8,200 would have died. The difference is about 3,300 deaths, or about 2,550 on the most cautious calculation. Deaths rose in every one of the 42 counties, in 38 of them beyond normal variation. The health ministry reported nine deaths from hyperthermia, on 15–19 July.
It was not one summer. In every summer from 2015 to 2025, in weeks when a county's daily highs averaged more than 32 °C, deaths ran 9% to 21% above the usual level. Below: every county, summer by summer.
Deaths that weekUsual level (with its normal range)Above the usual level
average high, °C<2626–2828–3030–3232–3434–36≥36
What the state counted, and what the deaths show#
Each small square below is one death above the usual level in the two heatwave weeks: 3,262 in all. On the left, the nine deaths the health ministry reported as hyperthermia between 15 and 19 July: four in Botoșani, two in Bucharest, two in Olt, one in Satu Mare.
These are two different measures. The nine are deaths attributed directly to heat, and cover only five days. The 3,300 are all deaths on 8–21 July above the usual level, whatever cause the certificate gives. Heat kills mostly by worsening heart, lung and kidney disease; the certificate names the disease, and mentions heat only if the doctor specifically records it.
What happened in each county#
The map shows how far deaths rose above the usual level in each county during the two weeks of July 2024. Pick a county from the list or tap the map to see every summer since 2015, week by week, with each week's heat.
Deaths above the usual level, 8–21 July 2024under +20%+20–35%+35–50%+50–65%+65% and over
Romania
Across Romania, between 8 and 21 July 2024, 11,486 people died, against about 8,224 expected: 3,262 more (+40%).
All counties as a table
| County | Deaths 8–21 July 2024 | Usually | Difference | Average high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brăila | 286 | 152 | +88% | 36.9 °C |
| Tulcea | 169 | 93 | +82% | 34.7 °C |
| Mehedinți | 188 | 109 | +73% | 36.5 °C |
| Olt | 295 | 175 | +69% | 38.0 °C |
| Dâmbovița | 326 | 200 | +63% | 36.2 °C |
| Dolj | 467 | 286 | +63% | 37.9 °C |
| Arad | 306 | 189 | +62% | 36.1 °C |
| Ialomița | 178 | 113 | +58% | 37.2 °C |
| Teleorman | 284 | 181 | +57% | 38.3 °C |
| Timiș | 379 | 245 | +54% | 36.0 °C |
| Galați | 326 | 219 | +49% | 36.7 °C |
| Bihor | 349 | 235 | +49% | 35.1 °C |
| Buzău | 292 | 198 | +47% | 36.2 °C |
| Satu Mare | 199 | 136 | +46% | 33.9 °C |
| Gorj | 193 | 133 | +45% | 35.8 °C |
| Ilfov | 209 | 146 | +43% | 38.4 °C |
| Călărași | 195 | 137 | +42% | 37.9 °C |
| Neamț | 306 | 216 | +42% | 33.2 °C |
| Botoșani | 250 | 177 | +41% | 34.1 °C |
| Prahova | 465 | 331 | +41% | 35.5 °C |
| Vaslui | 238 | 170 | +40% | 35.7 °C |
| Iași | 387 | 283 | +37% | 35.4 °C |
| Vrancea | 199 | 148 | +35% | 35.9 °C |
| Argeș | 324 | 241 | +34% | 35.3 °C |
| Vâlcea | 153 | 115 | +34% | 35.9 °C |
| Bucharest | 993 | 748 | +33% | 38.6 °C |
| Hunedoara | 247 | 186 | +33% | 32.8 °C |
| Caraș-Severin | 158 | 120 | +32% | 33.3 °C |
| Constanța | 374 | 290 | +29% | 33.2 °C |
| Cluj | 343 | 266 | +29% | 33.2 °C |
| Sălaj | 119 | 93 | +28% | 33.5 °C |
| Bacău | 339 | 268 | +27% | 34.2 °C |
| Giurgiu | 148 | 118 | +26% | 38.2 °C |
| Suceava | 320 | 255 | +26% | 31.6 °C |
| Brașov | 275 | 222 | +24% | 31.6 °C |
| Maramureș | 223 | 181 | +23% | 30.6 °C |
| Mureș | 284 | 233 | +22% | 33.3 °C |
| Bistrița-Năsăud | 136 | 113 | +21% | 31.4 °C |
| Covasna | 104 | 88 | +18% | 31.8 °C |
| Sibiu | 176 | 151 | +17% | 32.9 °C |
| Alba | 152 | 141 | +8% | 33.1 °C |
| Harghita | 132 | 129 | +3% | 30.3 °C |
Every hot week, every summer#
The hottest week in the data since 2015 was 8–14 July 2024 (average daily high across Romania: 35.6 °C). But in other summers too, hot weeks brought more deaths than usual. The chart gathers every summer week in every county from 2015 to June 2026, leaving out the two weeks of July 2024, grouped by how hot they were.
Weeks when daily highs averaged under 28 °C are the reference: each summer’s usual level is matched to them. From there they climb two degrees at a time: +8% at 30–32 °C, +12% at 32–34, +16% at 34–36 and +23% above 36. For people aged 80 and over the climb is steeper: +29% above 36 °C.
It shows every year: in weeks with daily highs averaging above 32 °C, leaving out the two weeks of July 2024, deaths ran 9% to 21% above the usual level, in each summer from 2015 to 2025.
The two weeks of July 2024 sit far above this curve. Had they behaved like other equally hot weeks, they would have brought about 1,400 deaths above the usual level. They brought 3,262, more than twice as many. The data do not say why. One possible reason is duration: two weeks of heat without a break, across almost the whole country at once. Another may be the COVID-19 variant circulating that summer.
All ages80 and overUnder 65
Summer by summer, across Romania#
Summers differ a lot. The table shows each summer’s hottest week and how far deaths ran above the usual level in its hot weeks.
Researchers at ISGlobal (Barcelona) estimate, with a different model and over June–September, how many deaths can be attributed to heat in each European country. For Romania: 2,942 in 2022, 3,147 in 2023 and 4,943 in 2024. The two calculations do not compare number for number, but both put summer 2024 well above the others.
| Summer | Hottest week (average high) | In weeks above 32 °C | ISGlobal, June–September |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 33.6 °C | +11% | – |
| 2016 | 31.9 °C | +21% | – |
| 2017 | 34.9 °C | +17% | – |
| 2018 | 31.1 °C | +10% | – |
| 2019 | 31.6 °C | +9% | – |
| 2022 | 32.7 °C | +15% | 2,942 |
| 2023 | 33.5 °C | +16% | 3,147 |
| 2024 | 35.6 °C | +11% | 4,943 |
| 2025 | 34.0 °C | +13% | – |
| 2026 (to the end of June) | 31.2 °C | +8% | – |
Who died#
In the two weeks of July 2024 the rise was largest among people aged 80 and over: +50%. But it was large under 65 too: +26%, or 483 deaths above the usual level in two weeks.
Did they die only a few weeks early?#
After a heatwave, deaths sometimes fall below the usual level: some of the people who died would have died in the following weeks anyway. That did not happen after July 2024. In the three weeks after the heat, deaths did not fall below the usual level: they were 571, 339 and 143 above it, and only the first of these is clearly beyond normal variation. The July excess was not made up in the weeks that followed.
Why the ministry counted only nine#
The nine are the cases Romania's health ministry reported as hyperthermia: deaths attributed directly to heat. Such cases are few, because heat mostly kills by worsening heart, lung and kidney disease, and the death is attributed to the disease. Heat appears as such only if the doctor specifically mentions it. An 84-year-old with a weak heart who dies in an overheated flat usually has a heart attack or heart failure recorded as the cause.
Countries that want to know how many people heat kills estimate its effect on all deaths, not only on those with heat on the certificate. In England, the UK Health Security Agency publishes such a calculation every year for the summer before: 2,985 deaths in the heat episodes of 2022, 1,311 in 2024. In France, Santé publique France used a model to estimate more than 3,700 deaths attributable to heat in summer 2024. Spain makes a daily estimate of deaths attributable to temperature, through the Carlos III Health Institute's MoMo system.
No Romanian institution publishes such an estimate. The data it needs exist and are free: deaths each week by county and age, sent by the National Institute of Statistics to Eurostat. The deaths on this page can be rebuilt from them.
How it was calculated#
- Deaths: Eurostat weekly deaths by county and five-year age group (dataset
demo_r_mweek3), from the first week of 2015 to the week ending 28 June 2026. They are deaths of people who live in Romania, counted by the date of death. Data for 2023, 2025 and 2026 are still provisional; summed over each year they match the National Institute of Statistics' annual totals within 1–2% every year, 2025 included. - The usual level: for each county and age group, a model learns from weeks 15–22 and 36–45 of each year (April–May and September to early November, away from winter flu and from every summer week) how many people usually die in each week of the year. The model has its own level for each year, because fewer people died in 2024 in general than in 2015–2019. 2020 and 2021, the pandemic years, are left out and not shown. The normal range covers 95% of ordinary weeks.
- Each summer's level: the model is then matched to the cool weeks of the same summer, the summer weeks in all counties when daily highs averaged under 28 °C. Without this step the summer level would have been off by between −4% and +3%, depending on the year.
- The simplest calculation uses the average of the same week in 2015–2019. With it, the two weeks of July 2024 have 2,549 deaths above the usual level instead of 3,262. The gap comes from more people dying in general in 2015–2019 than in 2024, so this calculation gives the lowest number.
- Heat: daily maximum temperatures from E-OBS (version 34.0e, cells of about 8 by 11 km), taken at each of the 3,181 communes and towns and averaged over the county by 2021 census population, so a county's figure is the heat where people live, not on the mountains.
- Hot weeks: the 32 °C threshold (the week's average daily high) is a convention. With a threshold of 30 °C or 34 °C the percentages change, but they stay above the usual level in every year that had such weeks.
- What cannot be said: the data do not say why each person died. Not every excess death in a hot week is caused by heat, and some heat deaths do not show as excess. A new COVID-19 variant also circulated in summer 2024 and cannot be separated in these data. The link to heat rests on the timing, on deaths rising with temperature in every summer, and on hotter counties having larger rises.
Questions#
How many people died because of the heat in Romania in 2024?
There is no official estimate. The health ministry reported nine deaths from hyperthermia on 15–19 July 2024. In the two heatwave weeks of 8–21 July, about 3,300 more people died than usual (about 2,550 on the most cautious calculation). ISGlobal estimates 4,943 heat deaths between June and September 2024.
Which counties saw the largest rise in deaths in the July 2024 heatwave?
Brăila (+88%), Tulcea (+82%) and Mehedinți (+73%). The rise was smallest in Harghita (+3%), the coolest county in those days.
At what temperature do deaths start to rise?
Deaths already rise in weeks with daily highs averaging 28–30 °C (+5%), and the rise steepens two degrees at a time: +16% at 34–36 °C, +23% above 36.
Who is most at risk?
People over 80: their deaths rose the most (+50% in July 2024). But deaths also rose by +26% among people under 65.
Sources#
Every number on the page is calculated from the sources below.
- Eurostat, Deaths by week, sex, 5-year age group and NUTS 3 region (demo_r_mweek3), updated 16 September 2026. Licence CC BY 4.0.
- Eurostat, Population on 1 January by NUTS 3 region (demo_r_pjanaggr3), 2024.
- National Institute of Statistics, TEMPO, POP206H: deaths of usual residents of Romania by county, 2015–2025 (check of annual totals).
- E-OBS v34.0e, daily maximum temperature, 0.1° grid: Cornes et al. (2018), “An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets”, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. Data from the ECA&D project and the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Commune and town boundaries (ANCPI, via geo-spatial.org) and 2021 census population (INS).
- HotNews, “Nouă decese provocate de hipertermie în România, în perioada codului roşu de caniculă”, 23 July 2024, citing News.ro and Romanian health ministry data.
- Janoš et al. (2025), ISGlobal estimates of heat-related deaths in Europe, Nature Medicine, Table 1 (Romania, 1 June–30 September: 2,942 deaths in 2022, 3,147 in 2023, 4,943 in 2024).
- UKHSA, Heat mortality monitoring report: England 2024 and the 2022 report; Santé publique France, Chaleur et santé, bilan de l’été 2024; Instituto de Salud Carlos III, MoMo, situation on 18 December 2024.
- Romania's National Meteorological Administration, red heat warnings of 13 July 2024 and 16 July 2024 (copies published by local institutions).
- WHO Europe, Heat and health in the WHO European Region: updated evidence for effective prevention (2021).
- EuroMOMO, method for the expected level of deaths (spring and autumn windows).