CIA · President's Daily Brief · declassified 2015–2016
Romania in the President's Daily Brief: 1976
18 days in 1976 on which the CIA's brief for the US president names Romania: 18 paragraphs, scanned and transcribed, with the withheld passages marked.
named in passing
USSR-CHINA
Moscow probably anticipates no early change in China's policy toward the Soviet Union as a result of Premier Chou En-lai's death.
The Soviets respected Chou's skills in promoting China's interests in the international arena, frequently at the expense of the USSR, but they also saw him as a force for moderation in China's dealings with Moscow. In this sense, his death is a setback to the prospect of less hostile Sino-Soviet relations.
The Soviets do not think well of Chou's successor, Teng Hsiao-ping. They well remember that it was he who violently attacked Khrushchev at the international Communist conference in 1960, who oversaw the bitter polemics between the two sides in the early 1960s, and who traded nasty words with Brezhnev at the Romanian party congress in 1965. The Soviets are also aware that one of the factors that allegedly persuaded Mao to rehabilitate Teng in 1973 was his negative attitude toward the USSR. They have consistently deprecated Teng's capacities as a leader over the past year and have, to foreigners as well as among themselves, portrayed him as a transitional figure.
Despite their misgivings about Teng and the oft-expressed belief that there will be no fundamental change in China's policy toward the USSR until well after Mao is dead, Moscow will want to make fresh soundings about the possibility of change in the wake of Chou's death. This is especially true since the release of the Soviet helicopter crew may cause uncertainty in Moscow about where China now stands vis-a-vis the USSR.
Romanian President Ceausescu used exceptionally strong language in a speech on Monday to charge Moscow with twisting Marxist-Leninist doctrine to advance Soviet hegemony in the world Communist movement.
The Yugoslavs immediately rebroadcast Ceausescu's speech, describing it as the "official opening of a polemic" against advocates of limited sovereignty--a euphemism for the "Brezhnev Doctrine."
Ceausescu's speech, which will not be ignored by the Kremlin, suggests that Bucharest feels itself under pressure from Moscow. His charges and the Yugoslav commentary clearly reflect the apprehensions of Bucharest and Belgrade both over the greater Soviet emphasis on ideological conformity since the 25th Soviet party congress and Moscow's intentions in the Balkans in the post-Tito period.
There are rumors in Bucharest that Romania is calling up reservists because of a fear of Soviet intervention.
There is no evidence that a general mobilization of Romanian forces is in progress, but some reservists may have been called up to participate in regular spring field training exercises. There has been no indication of any unusual Soviet military activity along the Romanian border. President Ceausescu, when faced with increased pressure from Moscow in the past, has used the tactic of pointing to a magnified Soviet menace in order to strengthen his country's resolve and show national unity.
The current spate of rumors has caused some panic buying by Romanian citizens.
It is now clear that the recent call-ups of civilian reservists in Romania were part of an unannounced but planned mobilization and alert exercise.
An officer of the Romanian foreign liaison office has confirmed to a Western military colleague that a "normal" alert began several days ago. Panic buying has subsided considerably in Bucharest. We continue to have no indications of any Soviet troop movements or exercises along the Romanian border that might have sparked the alert.
Romanian party secretary for foreign affairs Stefan Andrei, who will arrive in the US on Sunday for a visit of about ten days, has told US diplomats that President Ceausescu wants him to seek your views on "one or two issues of major interest."
Andrei almost certainly will want to talk about Soviet-Romanian relations, including what the Romanians consider to be a Soviet ideological-historical attack that questions--and thereby threatens--the legitimacy of the Romanian nation and its rights to its present territory. Since some Romanians fear that Moscow will try to sabotage the Helsinki follow-on conference scheduled for Belgrade next year, Andrei may outline Romania's plans to press for guarantees safeguarding its independence and sovereignty.
Andrei, age 45, is the youngest member of the party's Political Executive Committee and is second only to Ceausescu in the formulation of Romania's delicately balanced foreign policy.
The first major shuffle in Romania's Council of Ministers since 1974 reflects President Ceausescu's increasing concern over possible consumer dissatisfaction and economic inefficiency.
Ceausescu's grip on the reins of power is strong, but he apparently recognizes that the economy is his greatest vulnerability. He has now moved trusted supporters with proven administrative abilities into key positions in the consumer welfare sector in order to upgrade the performance of the economy.
Changes also were made in the military sector. The new defense minister, Colonel General Ion Coman, reportedly is favorably disposed toward the US. His highly successful trip to this country last summer was the first visit by the chief of staff of a Warsaw Pact army.
Romanian President Ceausescu recently instructed the press not to raise controversial questions on the "history of Soviet-Romanian relations," Ceausescu apparently intends to tone down his regime's polemics with the Soviets over "falsifications" of Romanian history. In a speech on June 2, he flatly said that Romania has no territorial or other problems with the USSR. Ceausescu, however, has given no indication that Romania will waver from its national communist course.
Most signs point to little or no controversy at the conference of European communist parties in East Berlin today and tomorrow.
General Secretary Brezhnev and President Tito will join representatives of all European communist parties except those of Iceland and Albania. To assure the attendance of independent-minded parties like the Italian, Romanian, Yugoslav, and French ones, the Soviets apparently granted extensive concessions.
the conference document will focus on such non-divisive issues as peace, security, cooperation and social progress in Europe. the proceedings and the document will strictly observe the full independence and autonomy of the participating parties and call for sharply expanded cooperation among communist parties and all "progressive" forces in Europe, including the Social and Christian Democrats.
Yugoslav President Tito and Romanian President Ceausescu delivered, as anticipated, the two most independent speeches by ruling party leaders heard at the European communist party conference.
Tito stressed that Yugoslavia opposes any form of interference in the internal affairs of other parties. In a thinly veiled reference to the Soviet Union and Bulgaria, he asserted that the failure of Yugoslavia's neighbors to recognize national minorities and their rights is directly contrary to both basic human rights and Marxism, and undermines lasting peace and cooperation in Europe.
Ceausescu defended "socialist patriotism" and the role of the nation in international affairs. He called for effective safeguards against interference in Romania's domestic matters, and declared that the inevitable differences among parties--read, among others, the Soviets and Chinese--should be solved in a "principled spirit" via private, bilateral sessions.
Polish party chief Gierek took a cautious stance and placed more stress on the solidarity of the communist movement than on Poland's role. Warsaw is billing as more important a speech Gierek is to give tomorrow in Katowice, a key Polish industrial city.
Among Moscow's allies, Bulgarian leader Zhivkov declared that a party's attitude toward the USSR and the Soviet party represented the "most reliable criterion of loyalty" to the communist ideal. In condemning anti-Sovietism and Maoism, Zhivkov stressed that when inevitable differences between parties emerge, they should be resolved in a spirit of "proletarian internationalism," thereby asserting that the Soviet party is the first among equals.
Czechoslovakia's Husak, East Germany's Honecker, and Hungary's Kadar, although supportive of Moscow, did not go as far as Zhivkov.
Speeches by the major West European leaders reasserted their independence from Moscow in no-nonsense terms.
Italian party chief Berlinguer said the development of Marxism had not kept pace with the reality of the world today. He also restated his party's intention to pursue an autonomous line without foreign interference and "within the framework" of Italy's international alliances--a reference to the party's acceptance of Italian membership in NATO and the EC.
French party leader Marchais emphasized his party's adoption of a more independent stance by noting that it recently had discarded the concept of the "dictatorship of the proletariat." In addition, he came down hard on those parties in power which, in the name of peaceful coexistence, cooperate with governments in the West to the detriment of the local communist party. The French Communists have long believed that Moscow's relations with Paris have worked against their own interests.
In the most strongly worded speech, Spanish Communist leader Santiago Carrillo underscored his party's independence from Moscow with a demand that diversity be accepted, and a warning that failure to do so would result in a schism. With an eye toward his party's current struggle for legalization in Spain, Carrillo asserted that full democracy is essential for all "socialist states" and pointedly observed that socialism in Western countries would be brought about by pluralism rather than dictatorship.
President Ceausescu seems to be using his current stay in the Crimea to put the best possible face on relations between Romania and the USSR.
Ceausescu met General Secretary Brezhnev on Tuesday for "cordial and friendly" talks on a wide range of subjects, including an "exchange of opinions" on the future course of communism in Europe. According to the Romanian news agency, they affirmed their support of the cohesion of the socialist countries in terms usually adopted by Moscow to connote Soviet leadership of the movement.
We cannot confirm a London Evening News story that Soviet Premier Kosygin was saved from drowning after suffering a stroke.
We cannot confirm a London Evening News story that Soviet Premier Kosygin was saved from drowning after suffering a stroke.
Kosygin's most recent publicly announced activity was on July 22, when he received the Algerian minister of agriculture. There has been no information on his activities since July 30.
This is the second time we have picked up such a story. In mid-August, the Romanian ambassador to Moscow, probably passing on second- or third-hand gossip, told Canadian Ambassador Ford that Kosygin had an accident while on vacation near Pitsunda. He thought that the accident occurred on a pleasure craft on the Black Sea. The London Evening News version may be a variant of this story and cannot be regarded as confirmation of it.
According to a Japanese news agency, a Japanese business delegation visiting Moscow was told on August 10 that Kosygin would not be able to receive them because he was "recuperating" from a "slight cold."
The government's announcement yesterday that President Tito will not be able to see Denmark's Queen Margrethe in late September seems intended, at least in part, to squelch speculation that his current indisposition is a diplomatic one.
Tito contributed to such an interpretation by appearing several times with Romania's Ceausescu on Friday--after Paris had been informed that President Giscard's visit to Belgrade would have to be postponed because of Tito's illness. Some observers concluded that the postponement stemmed from differences between the two countries that had arisen at the Sri Lanka summit last month. Official French responses have discounted this kind of speculation.
The Belgrade announcement said that Tito would need several weeks of "indispensable rest." Tito's medical history includes one serious bout with a liver ailment and a gall bladder operation years ago.
If Tito's doctors did detect a liver problem during recent medical examinations, hepatitis could be the problem.
Yugoslavia's anti-US commentaries on the hijacking by Croat emigres last Friday are indicative of the government's concern that terrorist activity could erupt in post-Tito Yugoslavia.
Intemperate allegations and diplomatic demarches are regular features of Yugoslav reactions to any increase in the activities of emigres. The virulence of the current campaign may also reflect a fear that the hijacking was triggered by Belgrade's announcement on Friday that Tito is ailing.
At the same time, the Yugoslavs are not unmindful that these condemnations of the US might deflect Western criticism of Belgrade's own recent treatment of the international terrorist, "Carlos," who was not detained during his stay in Belgrade last week.
North Korea may be considering some kind of "peace initiative."
In a recent conversation with the head of the Romanian UN mission, the North Koreans reiterated their interest in opening talks with the US. A Hungarian diplomat at the UN passed to US officials on September 22 a report that the North Koreans were "studying" the US proposal for a four-power conference on Korea while awaiting Peking's agreement before indicating a willingness to participate.
Any diplomatic initiative probably would involve primarily a repackaging of earlier proposals. But the North Koreans may display greater flexibility than before in their effort to draw the US into the long-proposed bilateral talks on a "peace agreement" to replace the 1953 armistice agreement. As part of this effort Pyongyang might downplay its demands for the immediate dissolution of the UN Command and the withdrawal of US forces and attempt instead to convey an impression that a phased disengagement of the US military presence would be acceptable.
Yugoslavia has rescheduled a state visit by French President Giscard for early December. Planning for a visit by Soviet party leader Brezhnev is also apparently under way.
The Giscard visit was originally postponed in September apparently because of Tito's poor health. Since then, the 84-year-old Yugoslav President has made only infrequent public appearances and has received no foreign guests.
The Soviets would like to arrange a meeting between Tito and Brezhnev in conjunction with a trip by the Soviet leader to neighboring Romania in late November. Belgrade will make much of Giscard's visit as a counter to those who would see Tito's meeting with Brezhnev as a Yugoslav "drift" eastward.
Soviet party chief Brezhnev's arrival in Romania today for three days of talks will cap five months of efforts by the Soviets and Romanians to improve bilateral relations.
This is Brezhnev's first official visit to Romania during his 12 years as General Secretary.
The talks in Bucharest will take place just before the Warsaw Pact's Political Consultative Committee meets there on Thursday and Friday, the first such meeting to be held in Romania in 10 years. Brezhnev and Ceausescu will probably seek common ground on issues that the Pact gathering is likely to discuss, in addition to their review of Soviet-Romanian relations.
Romania is said to be dissatisfied with its share of the USSR's foreign trade in the 1976-1980 planning period, and Ceausescu may be trying to coax the Soviets into expanding their economic assistance. He will probably press for the specifics of Moscow's reported agreement "in principle" to provide Bucharest with some crude oil and additional raw materials.
Ceausescu will want the language of the joint communique after the meetings to follow the same line as that issued after the Tito-Brezhnev talks in Yugoslavia--recognition of national sovereignty and voluntary cooperation among equal communist parties that freely choose their own national communist courses.
The Soviets will strive for Romanian recognition of the merits of greater integration within the communist community and also of Moscow's seniority in the communist movement.
Talks in Bucharest this week between General Secretary Brezhnev and President Ceausescu and the joint declaration they signed indicate efforts to promote an appearance of improved relations without making any fundamental concessions.
During the course of the talks, Brezhnev said no "important unresolved problems" exist between Moscow and Bucharest, but then touched on such subjects as the need to perfect the division of labor among socialist states and the necessity for "cohesion of socialist countries."
Ceausescu said that differences of opinion on "non-essential problems should not affect bilateral cooperation." He then enumerated almost all points of contention between the two countries. He mentioned Romania's status as both a socialist and developing country, came close to equating the nonaligned world with socialist countries, and made only passing references to the Warsaw Pact and the Council for Economic Mutual Assistance
The Romanian party daily, Scinteia, covered in its Tuesday issue the visits of both Brezhnev and Secretary of Commerce Richardson to Bucharest and of a Romanian deputy defense minister to China.
Brezhnev and Ceausescu ended their discussions on the eve of the meeting in Bucharest of the Warsaw Pact's Political Consultative Committee.
The committee presumably will consider issues to be discussed at next year's follow-on conference to the Helsinki accords. Romania seems likely to continue to differ with the USSR as to what these issues should be.
The consultative committee may also surface a new initiative urging the West to agree to concrete measures on disarmament. Brezhnev said Wednesday that he hopes to see rapid movement on the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks when the new US administration takes office.
EC foreign ministers meeting this week in Brussels approved tough measures sharply reducing the catch third-country fishermen will be allowed to take in EC waters next year.
The Community will establish a 200-nautical mile fishing zone in the North Atlantic and North Sea on January 1. Those states that have not negotiated a reciprocal fishing agreement with the Community--the USSR, Poland, East Germany, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, and Finland--will be allowed to continue fishing EC waters for three months, but at substantially reduced levels. Bulgaria and Romania, which only recently began to fish in EC waters, will be excluded totally on January 1.
States that desire to continue fishing within the EC's 200-nautical mile zone after April 1 must negotiate new agreements with the EC Commission.
The Soviets and the East Europeans will be most seriously affected by the EC measures; the Soviet catch would be reduced by almost 60 percent under the new regulations. The EC is prepared to negotiate an agreement that would allow the Soviets an annual catch of about 60,000 tons--the amount EC trawlers now take in the Barents Sea. The Soviets and the East Europeans, however, refuse to recognize the EC's authority to negotiate for the Nine.
