How Japan rebuilds its homes, what happens to the people inside, and what Europe could copy

Do Japanese homes really last only 30 years?#

The number comes from Japan’s housing ministry. It compares two national housing surveys five years apart, counts how many homes of each age have gone, and averages their age. For 2018 to 2023 the answer is 35.7 years; the ministry’s latest figures for the United States and England are 56.7 and 51.4.

That is the age of the homes that disappeared, not how long a home lasts. Most of Japan’s homes (62%) were built after 1990, so most of the homes that could disappear were young. Projecting from the 2013 and 2018 surveys, the same ministry expects a new home to last 53.7 years on average; using every survey since 1973, it gives 58.2 years for houses built in the 1980s.

The chart follows Tokyo’s homes decade by decade. The outline is how many were started, the fill how many were still lived in at each survey. Of the 1.74 million homes started in the 1970s, 0.87 million were still lived in in 2023, at 43 to 52 years old: 50%. For all of Japan the share is 51%.

Even the widest measure is slow. Between the 2018 and 2023 surveys Tokyo started 671,571 homes and its housing stock grew by 529,800, so about 28,000 homes a year were demolished, merged or left the count: 0.37% of all homes. Replacing a whole city every 30 years would take 3.3% a year. Recorded demolitions across Japan come to 0.17% of homes a year, close to the 0.17% Amsterdam records, though Japan’s wider measure is three times higher.

“Still lived in” counts occupied homes. A home that stood empty on survey day counts as gone, so the fill is a floor. Homes of unknown age are shared out in proportion and residents report the year, which is why the 1990s bar briefly tops its outline in 2003.

Why a Japanese house loses its value#

In Japan the land holds the value and the house wears out like a car. In 2024 land made up 88% of what Tokyo households’ homes were worth, and 79% across Japan. The tax rules write off a wooden house over 22 years and a concrete building over 47.

Earthquakes matter through the building code. Japan raised its standards in 1971, on 1 June 1981 and in 2000. In Kobe in 1995, in the surveyed Chūō ward, 17% of buildings from 1971 or earlier collapsed, 5% of those from 1972–81 and 3% of those built later. About 90% of Japan’s homes met the earthquake standard in force since 1981 in 2023; some 5.7 million did not, 4.5 million of them houses.

The third reason is the permit. Japan has 13 national zone types, and when plans meet the zone’s rules the building official must issue the certificate (Building Standard Act, art. 6). An owner who knocks down a two-storey house can put up three storeys or a small block of flats without a hearing, if the zone allows it. Tokyo started 9.3 homes per 1,000 residents a year in 2020–24.

The same rules leave homes empty. Japan has 9 million empty homes, 13.8% of the total; 3.86 million of them are neither for sale, to let nor second homes. A house valued at nothing is cheap to replace, and also cheap to leave empty.

The block of flats that almost never gets rebuilt#

The fast rebuilding happens to houses with one owner. A block of flats has dozens of owners, and Japan finds it as hard to rebuild as Europe does. Japan has 7.24 million condominium flats. By March 2025, 323 buildings with about 26,000 flats had been rebuilt, not counting rebuilds after disasters.

The flats are ageing faster than the rules can move them: 1.59 million were 40 or older at the end of 2025, and the ministry expects 3.13 million by 2035 and 5.04 million by 2045.

When a rebuild does happen, owners vote. Since April 2026 four fifths of owners and of votes are needed, or three quarters if the building fails the earthquake, fire or safety standards. Owners who voted no are bought out at market price. A developer joins, builds a taller block and sells the extra flats to pay for the work; each owner gets a flat in the new building worth what the old one was, paying extra for more space, or takes cash. In seven Yokohama rebuilds the owners spent on average about 11 years deciding, the works took 2.4 years, and the new buildings had 3.6 times the floor space.

It has become expensive. What an owner paid on top rose from under ¥3.5 million in rebuilds up to 1996 to more than ¥19 million on average (about €107,000) since 2017, according to figures the developers’ association presented to the ministry. The cost and the two moves weigh most on owners living on pensions.

If your building came down: Tokyo next to your city#

Choose a city and whether you rent or own your flat. Each row is a step, with the rule that decides it.

If you pay €500 in rent, does a new building push it up?#

For the flat that is rebuilt, yes: a new flat usually rents for more than the old one did, and in Japan the old tenant usually leaves with compensation. For the neighbourhood, the best studies find the opposite.

In low-income neighbourhoods of US cities, rents close to a large new building ended up 5–7% lower than rents slightly further away or near buildings finished later (Asquith, Mast and Reed, 2023). In Helsinki researchers followed everyone who moved into new central flats, then whoever moved into the homes they left, for six rounds. For every 100 new central flats, 66 homes came free in the poorer half of the Helsinki area’s neighbourhoods, 31 in the poorest fifth (Bratu, Harjunen and Saarimaa, 2023).

Tokyo’s rent index for private flats peaked in 1994 and in 2025 stood 5% below that peak, while prices overall rose. Part of that is Japan’s low inflation, and the index follows sitting tenants in ageing flats, which statisticians say pulls it down. Comparable indices in Spain and Germany also fell after inflation, so the answer for the €500 tenant comes from the studies above rather than from a race between cities.